Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with even the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
